![]() Focusing on prediction targets, they do not find a clear substantive pattern about which types of social indicators are more difficult to predict (although they did find that indicators that showed more statistical variability during the training period were more difficult to predict). They find that the more-accurate teams tended to be interdisciplinary, use simpler models, base predictions on prior data and have prior experience with forecasting tournaments. take advantage of this structure to explore three key dimensions of forecast accuracy. The design of the forecasting tournaments means that predictions were made by many teams about many social indicators at many forecast horizons. Although these horserace-style comparisons might be what many people will remember from this paper, some of the other findings may turn out to be more important scientifically. ![]()
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